With the 2024 election results confirming Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the Trump cannabis question looms large: How will his second term shape an industry already defined by shifting regulations, evolving consumer demand, and ongoing federal-state tensions? While Trump’s previous policies left businesses navigating a blend of opportunity and uncertainty, his recent remarks on rescheduling and regulated markets hint at a more optimistic—though still unpredictable—future in 2025.
Trump’s support for rescheduling cannabis, combined with a focus on regulated markets and state autonomy, could offer pathways for industry growth. Yet, his track record during his first term—alongside conservative priorities in Congress—leaves room for speculation.
So, what does Trump’s victory mean for the future of the cannabis market, CBD industry, and federal policy? Here’s what we know, what could change, and what cannabis businesses should prepare for under Trump 2.0.
What’s at Stake for the Cannabis Industry?
For cannabis businesses, investors, and consumers, Donald Trump’s return to the White House isn’t just a political change—it’s a potential turning point. From rescheduling cannabis to overhauling banking access, the decisions made in Washington could either fast-track industry growth or stall critical reforms. As 2025 approaches, the stakes have never been higher: Will Trump’s evolving stance spark new economic opportunities for the cannabis and CBD markets, or will uncertainty continue to hamper progress? Let’s explore the key factors shaping this next chapter—and why your business can’t afford to look away.
Trump’s Track Record on Cannabis and CBD Policy
Donald Trump’s previous term (2016–2020) left both the cannabis and CBD industries walking a fine line between opportunity and uncertainty. Although Trump marijuana policies were not a top priority then, the groundwork laid for hemp legalization—and his evolving stance ahead of 2024—point to a potentially new chapter for cannabis reform in 2025.
The 2018 Farm Bill and Hemp Legalization
One of Trump’s most notable contributions to the cannabis-adjacent industry came with the 2018 Farm Bill, which federally legalized hemp and hemp-derived products (containing less than 0.3% THC). This policy shift spurred the rapid growth of the CBD market and provided a clear regulatory framework for farmers and manufacturers to capitalize on hemp production.
However, as noted by Politico, the Farm Bill’s renewal is now on shaky ground, with Congress debating key provisions as the current version nears its expiration. While Trump previously championed the bill, uncertainty around its extension could disrupt the CBD and hemp industries, which rely on its legal protections.(1)
Federal Enforcement: Mixed Signals from Trump’s First Term
During his first term, Trump largely deferred cannabis regulation to individual states, enabling state-legal marijuana markets to expand without major federal interference. Yet, this “hands-off” approach was tested by Jeff Sessions’ rescission of the Cole Memo in 2018. The memo, initially introduced under Obama, discouraged federal prosecutors from interfering with state-legal cannabis markets.
While Sessions’ move created anxiety across the cannabis industry, the enforcement landscape remained largely unchanged. State-level programs continued to grow, and Trump ultimately avoided direct crackdowns, favoring a more passive stance.(2)
A Shifting Stance: Trump’s Campaign Trail Signals
In contrast to his previous term, Trump’s stance on cannabis during the 2024 campaign took a noticeable turn. He publicly endorsed the rescheduling of marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III—a move that many observers call a significant pivot for Trump on marijuana issues—aligning with Biden’s recent efforts. Trump also expressed support for regulated recreational cannabis markets and banking reforms like the SAFE Banking Act.
As Forbes notes, Trump’s statements point toward a more business-friendly approach, particularly emphasizing economic opportunities within the cannabis industry. His evolving position suggests a greater openness to reform, likely influenced by shifting public opinion and the growing economic footprint of legal cannabis.(1)
Trump’s track record reflects both progress and unpredictability. While his administration advanced hemp legalization through the 2018 Farm Bill, federal cannabis reform stalled amid conflicting signals. Heading into 2025, Trump’s campaign promises—if realized—could mark a turning point for the cannabis market, particularly through rescheduling and financial reforms. However, the industry remains cautious, watching closely for actions that match the rhetoric.
Key Areas of Change Under Trump 2.0 Cannabis and CBD Focus
With Donald Trump preparing for his second term, the cannabis industry faces a mix of opportunity and uncertainty. While Trump has signaled support for certain reforms, his broader policy priorities and the dynamics of Congress will ultimately determine the scope and speed of change. Here are the areas to watch:
Cannabis Rescheduling to Schedule III
The most significant potential shift under Trump 2.0 is the rescheduling of cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act—a move that could shape the Trump cannabis narrative for years to come. Currently classified alongside heroin and LSD, Schedule I designation restricts research and imposes crippling tax burdens on cannabis businesses under IRS Code 280E.
- What Rescheduling Means: Moving cannabis to Schedule III would acknowledge its medical benefits, expand opportunities for research, and allow businesses to deduct standard operating expenses, easing financial pressures.
- Trump’s Position: On the campaign trail, Trump voiced support for cannabis rescheduling, echoing recent Biden-era progress. As Forbes highlights, rescheduling could save cannabis companies millions annually in taxes and help stimulate growth in the industry.
Economic Impact and SAFE Banking Act
Access to traditional financial services remains one of the largest hurdles for the cannabis industry. With cannabis still illegal at the federal level, businesses often operate on a cash-only basis, creating security risks and stifling growth.
- Trump has expressed support for banking reforms like the SAFE Banking Act, which would allow cannabis businesses access to loans, credit cards, and other essential financial tools.
- Industry experts note that Trump’s pro-business stance could prioritize economic reforms over broader social legalization efforts. As Rolling Stone points out, many industry insiders are cautiously optimistic that Trump’s administration will focus on the business potential of cannabis rather than reverting to outdated prohibition policies.
The Farm Bill’s Impact on Hemp and CBD
The 2018 Farm Bill, signed during Trump’s first term, federally legalized industrial hemp and hemp-derived CBD, leading to a booming CBD market. However, the upcoming Farm Bill renewal remains a point of contention in Congress, with debates over funding and regulatory parameters.
- If Trump continues to support hemp and CBD industries as he did previously, this could safeguard the legal framework and boost the growing CBD industry.
- Conversely, delays or changes in the bill could introduce uncertainty for farmers and manufacturers who rely on its protections.
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Federal vs. State Control
State autonomy has been a cornerstone of U.S. cannabis policy, with 38 states legalizing medical marijuana and 24 approving recreational use. Trump has historically deferred cannabis regulation to the states, avoiding direct federal interference.
- Moving forward, Trump’s administration could continue this hands-off approach, allowing states to maintain control while advancing federal reforms like rescheduling or banking access.
- However, conservative allies in Congress may push for stricter regulations, creating friction between federal policy and state markets.
Trump’s second term has the potential to reshape the cannabis industry through rescheduling, financial reforms, and the renewal of the Farm Bill. While his recent rhetoric favors progress, the industry remains cautious, as outcomes will depend on both Trump’s priorities and Congressional dynamics.
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Implications for the Cannabis Industry
The potential changes under Trump’s second term could have far-reaching effects on businesses, consumers, and the broader cannabis industry. Here’s how key sectors might be impacted:
1. Tax Relief for Cannabis Businesses
Rescheduling cannabis to Schedule III would have an immediate financial benefit for businesses by eliminating the restrictions imposed by IRS Code 280E. Currently, cannabis companies are unable to deduct standard operating expenses like rent, payroll, or marketing, leading to excessive tax burdens.
- Why This Matters: According to industry leaders cited in Forbes, rescheduling could save cannabis businesses tens of millions annually, allowing for reinvestment, expansion, and competitive pricing.
- The Catch: While rescheduling addresses taxation, it stops short of full legalization. As a result, businesses would still face challenges like fragmented state markets and federal banking restrictions unless further reforms are enacted.
2. A Boost for the CBD Market
Trump’s previous support for the 2018 Farm Bill fueled the rapid growth of the CBD industry, providing clarity around hemp-derived products. With the Farm Bill now up for renewal, Trump’s administration could stabilize and strengthen the regulatory environment for CBD manufacturers and farmers.
Industry Outlook: Continued support for hemp would ensure CBD products remain legal, but any disruptions or delays in passing the bill could stall momentum.(3)
3. Expanded Research Opportunities
Rescheduling cannabis to Schedule III would open the door for medical research that has long been stifled under federal restrictions. Universities, healthcare institutions, and pharmaceutical companies could gain easier access to cannabis for clinical studies, advancing the understanding of its potential therapeutic benefits.
Industry Benefit: Increased research could drive innovation, leading to new products, treatments, and credibility for both CBD and THC-based markets.
4. Banking Access and Market Growth
The SAFE Banking Act remains a critical priority for cannabis businesses, offering access to loans, credit, and basic banking services. Trump’s support for this reform could ease the cash-only operations that currently dominate the market.
Business Impact: Improved banking access would reduce security risks, attract new investors, and fuel expansion for both large and small operators. As Rolling Stone highlights, a Trump administration focused on economic growth could prioritize business-friendly cannabis reforms while avoiding broader social legalization debates.
5. Increased State-Level Momentum
Under Trump’s historically state-focused approach, legalization efforts are expected to continue gaining ground across the country. States will likely lead the charge on expanding medical and recreational programs, while the federal government focuses on rescheduling and financial reforms.
What This Means: Cannabis businesses must stay agile, navigating state-by-state regulations while preparing for federal changes that could reshape the landscape.
Trump’s policies could bring financial relief, regulatory clarity, and growth opportunities for the cannabis and CBD industries. However, businesses must remain prepared for an incremental approach, as rescheduling and banking reforms address economic challenges but stop short of full legalization.
What Trump’s Win Could Mean for the Cannabis Industry
Donald Trump’s return to the White House presents both challenges and opportunities for the cannabis industry. While his previous term left the market navigating uncertainty, his evolving stance—supporting cannabis rescheduling, SAFE Banking reforms, and continued CBD market growth—signals the potential for meaningful progress in 2025.
For cannabis businesses, the focus will likely be on economic opportunities, with rescheduling offering tax relief and opening the door for increased medical research. Meanwhile, renewed discussions around the Farm Bill and SAFE Banking Act could stabilize the CBD market and provide long-awaited financial access for cannabis operators.
However, Trump’s leadership also comes with unpredictability. While the industry remains cautiously optimistic, businesses must stay agile, ready to adapt to incremental reforms rather than sweeping legalization. As highlighted by Forbes, Rolling Stone, and NPR, Trump’s second term may prioritize business growth over broader social policies, leaving states to continue driving legalization efforts.
The bottom line? Trump 2.0 could be the turning point that redefines “Trump on cannabis” by balancing economic progress with cautious optimism. For businesses, advocates, and investors alike, staying informed, adaptable, and engaged will be critical as the industry navigates these evolving dynamics. With potential moves on rescheduling, the SAFE Banking Act, and a renewed Farm Bill, 2025 could mark a pivotal year for both the cannabis and CBD markets.
Sources
- Sabaghi, Dario. “What can we expect from Trump on cannabis reform?” Forbes, November 18, 2024. https://www.forbes.com/sites/dariosabaghi/2024/11/18/what-can-we-expect-from-trump-on-cannabis-reform/.
- Gibson, Mary Jane. “The weed industry isn’t feeling too anxious about Trump 2.0.” Rolling Stone, December 8, 2024. https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/trump-efk-weed-industry-republicans-democrats-1235196527/.
- Yarrow, Grace, and Meredith Lee Hill. “Farm bill extension on the line.” Politico, December 12, 2024. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-agriculture/2024/12/09/farm-bill-extension-on-the-line-00193201.
